By Gary Sharp

I keep hearing about the seniors market and what an opportunity it presents to both new home builders and to renovators. Is it all just hype?
My research says it’s real, and it’s available, but if you don’t understand it and prepare for it, you won’t get any of it. This article will take a close look at the data we have so far. You can judge if this growing demographic represents an opportunity for you.

Big Picture Data
For the purposes of this article “seniors” are everyone over 65 years old.
This year we have almost six million seniors in Canada. The seniors group makes up about 17% of Canada’s total population. Estimates are that by 2036 seniors will make up nearly 24% of Canada’s population, which is forecast to be approximately 43 million people. It should be noted that Canada’s population is growing, but the number of seniors is growing at an even faster rate. In rough numbers we have six million seniors now and will likely have ten million in 2036.
The make-up of the seniors is shown in Chart 1. As one might expect, the highest population of seniors is in the youngest age group (65-69), declining to the oldest age group, except in year 2036. By 2036, we are forecast to see a declining growth rate of the 65-69 age group. This signals that the Baby Boom Generation will have moved through their “early seniors” years and a smaller Generation X is just entering their senior years.


Chart 1

Interestingly, the 100+ age group is the fastest growing, highlighting our generally longer life spans. However, even in 2036 the 100+ age group may only represent a total of 20,000 people across the country.
The majority of seniors are living in Ontario, followed by Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, respectively. The projections do not show this changing with time. These four provinces appear to be the locations of choice (Chart 2). Note that the growth rate for seniors (Chart 3) shows that Ontario has the highest, again, followed by Quebec, B.C. and Alberta.


Chart 2


Chart 3


Chart 4

Atlantic Canada tells a different story. Chart 4 shows the percentage of the seniors’ population compared with the total population of each province. The province with the highest percentage of total population being seniors is Newfoundland, followed by New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Quebec, respectively. The percentage of seniors is growing over the 2016 to 2036 timeframe making seniors’ business even more important to those provincial economies. So even though Ontario, Quebec, B.C. and Alberta have more seniors, the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec seniors represent a higher proportion of the population. Note: In Quebec, the total number of seniors is forecast to grow faster than the general population, making the seniors demographic even more important in that province in the years ahead.
Forecasting the seniors’ market is a tricky business and governments will play a key role in whether the numbers are even close to being correct. For example, pressures on provincial healthcare systems have the potential to impact Charts 2, 3 & 4. Clearly as the percentage of seniors becomes more of the total population, the demand for health services increases while the number of working residents to pay for those services is decreasing. Chart 5 illustrates physician-to-population ratios. The College of Family Physicians Canada reports that physicians are currently working over 46 hours per week, of which approximately 25+ of those hours are actually seeing patients. If the ratios in Chart 4 rise, seniors may choose to move to a province that can offer better service. Alternatively, physicians may move to a province where the workload is not as high.


Chart 5


Chart 6

As seniors increasingly face life alone, their needs change. This year we have an imbalance in the seniors’ population with 560,000 more women than men. This imbalance is expected to grow by year 2036 to almost 700,000 more women than men in the senior demographic. Chart 6 shows that the number of these single seniors will rise the fastest in Ontario, growing from 224,000 today to 275,000 in 2036.

Adapting for Builders and Renovators
So what does this mean for builders and renovators?  It means that the seniors population represents a growing market in all of Canada’s provinces. In Ontario alone, we can expect the number of seniors to grow from 2.3 million this year to 4.1 million in 2036. That’s a 78% increase in Ontario over 20 years. While renovations for seniors tend to be a lower dollar value per renovation, the total number of renovations completed is high, making the seniors business an important component of the renovation industry.
The message for new home builders is that many seniors are choosing to continue living in single-family homes even if that means living alone. There are indications of competition in some parts of the country for larger homes. The Baby Boomer generation appears to be outbidding younger households with families for these houses. For example, a recent U.S. survey on Baby Boomers found that 37% of them have plans to move from their current home, and 46% of these “movers” are looking for nicer homes and more space, not less. Another significant finding from this survey was that whether upsizing or downsizing, these “movers” are looking for single-storey homes and more that 69% of Baby Boomers want a yard or a garden.
Seniors will have an impact on renovators and how they approach this market demographic too. Our research shows that single senior women respond best to other females. If renovators don’t have female sales staff today to service this group, they need to make plans to do so if they want this business. It all starts by sending the right person on the sales call.
To be successful in the seniors market, builders and renovators will need to educate themselves and provide the service desired by the seniors to assist them in staying in their homes. New homes that meet their changing needs will also be in demand. Price will be less of a senior’s concern but quality will be demanded.
Renovators will also need to understand the needs of their market. Look for smaller renovation projects from seniors, but more projects overall. This will affect how you plan for jobs, how many staff you need and the types of work they are doing on site. Staff assigned to work with the seniors will need to be carefully selected and trained. Understand the sensitivities of the seniors and ensure that staff is aware of these.
In both new homes and renovations it may make sense to offer additional services—or team up with others who can provide grass cutting, snow plowing, window and house cleaning services while your company supplies the home maintenance, repair and renovation. The seniors market is real but to get it may require a re-thinking of how you are doing business now.

Gary Sharp became the CHBA’s first Director, Renovator Services in June 2015. Gary is a licensed Professional Engineer in the Province of Ontario. He is responsible for the Canadian Renovators Council and the Builders’ Manual. He has been involved in the construction and renovation industry for over 25 years, providing building services, engineering, builder training, new product development as well as sales and marketing advice to both private industry and government.

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