Housing markets cooling, led by Greater Toronto
April 19, 2022
Toronto house for sale at $1.18 million. | Point2Point
After nearly two years of a booming market and one of the highest March sales performances on record, data suggests signs Canada’s housing market is slowing down.
Greater Toronto Area “did experience more balance in the first quarter of 2022 compared to last year,” said Jason Mercer, chief market analyst with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
Real estate analyst Ben Rabidoux of Edge Realty Analytics agrees, writing “the signposts of a slowdown in Toronto are now clear if you know where to look.”
For example, seasonally adjusted home sales were down 18.6 per cent from February 2022—lowest level since June 2000. At the same time, there was a build-up in inventory, with new listings up about 30 per cent compared to the 10-year average.
Sales are expected to “fall significantly” once the current pool of buyers with 90-day mortgage rate holds is exhausted, Rabidoux added. “These folks have mortgage approvals at rates up to 100bps [1 per cent] below current levels, and they are highly motivated to transact.”
“We did experience more balance in the first quarter of 2022 compared to last year. If this trend continues, it is possible that the pace of price growth could moderate as we move through the year,“ Mercer said.
In March, the benchmark home price in Greater Toronto was $1.29 million—down 2.6 per cent from February 2022 and up 19.6 per cent since March 2021.
Montreal was livelier, with sales up 25 per cent from a month earlier and the medium detached house price up 2.8 per cent from February.
In Greater Vancouver, housing sales were down nearly 24 per cent year-over-year in March 2022, and the benchmark home price was up 3.6 per cent from February 2022 at $1.36 million.
“This year’s activity, while still elevated, is happening at a calmer pace than we experienced 12 months ago,” said Daniel John, chairman of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. “Homebuyers are keeping a close eye on rising interest rates, hoping to make a move before their locked-in rates expire.”
