Vancouver realtors put brave face on bad numbers

February 8, 2023



The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) has released a rather bullish forecast in the face of what it concedes is one of the worst months for sales in its history.
January 2023 housing transactions plunged 55.3 per cent (1,022 total sales) compared to the same month last year while the composite benchmark price dropped 6.6 per cent from January 2022 to $1.11 million, according to a February 3 REBGV report.
January 2023 sales were 42.9 per cent below the 10-year January sales average, the study noted.
Yet, in its first 2023 Residential Market Forecast released a week earlier, REBGV stated “home sales in 2023 will remain in line with last year while prices may see small increases.”
The forecast is based on some key assumptions, according to Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics.
These assumptions include:

• Bank of Canada is at, or very near, the peak of the current interest rate tightening cycle.
• Condo apartment sales are forecast to decrease over last year, while detached homes are forecast to increase.
• Additional factors, such as population growth, are causing an imbalance between supply and demand, and will continue to put upward pressure on prices.

According to REBGV, housing sales across Metro Vancouver are expected to reach approximately 28,500 in 2023—a mere 2.6 per cent decrease over the 29,261 sales in 2022.
The average price across all product types across Greater Vancouver is forecast to reach approximately $1.2 million in 2023—a 1.4 per cent increase over 2022. Prices for apartments, attached, and detached homes are projected to increase by approximately 1  to 2  per cent, REBGV notes.