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CREA sees sales, price rebound in 2024

November 17, 2023

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices of Canadian real estate boards and associations for 2023 and 2024.
Some 449,614 residential properties are forecast to trade hands in 2023—down 9.8 per cent from 2022. The downward revision to sales was predominantly due to fewer expected sales in Ontario and British Columbia. These more than offset an upward revision to the forecast for activity in Alberta.
The national average home price is forecast to decline by 3.3 per cent on an annual basis to $680,686 in 2023. 
National home sales are forecast to rebound by 9 per cent to 490,257 units in 2024 as interest rates get closer to, and eventually start, trending down and housing markets make a turn back toward their long-term trends. This forecast places activity close to the pre-pandemic 10-year average.
“The major risk to this forecast remains what happens with the data that the Bank of Canada [BoC] is eyeing and what that means for its key policy interest rate between now and next spring,” CREA cautioned.
“The current assumption is either no more hikes, or at most one more, along with some indication from the BoC at some point that the next move will likely be down,” CREA stated.


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