Land shortage threatens Ontario's housing targets
December 22, 2023
A recent study conducted by Malone Given Parsons Ltd. (MGP) on behalf of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA) supports the BILD and OHBA call on the Ontario Government and municipal authorities to urgently address housing affordability and supply crisis. BILD and OHBA want the province to ensure ample land is available for a market-based housing supply to meet forecasted growth to 2051.
The study reveals municipal official plans in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) and Greater Toronto Area (GTA) lack sufficient land to accommodate mid- and long-term population growth. This shortfall not only endangers the realization of housing targets but also poses a threat to efforts to alleviate housing supply issues and enhance affordability.
BILD President and CEO Dave Wilkes emphasizes the region is already grappling with a housing supply deficit—approximately 80,000 units short of the target in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) from 2006 to 2021. Looking ahead to 2051, the anticipated increase in housing demand—especially for high-density apartments—exacerbates this shortfall.
The report suggests that without expanding municipal boundaries for grade-related homes, redeveloping existing neighborhoods across the GTA becomes a necessity. However, the "resetting" of official plans as announced by the province may not allow for additional land expansion, potentially leading to the redevelopment of 10 per cent of all existing low-density neighborhoods by 2051. This would mean demolishing and replacing one in every 10 homes with multiplex units—a highly improbably scenario.
OHBA Interim Chief Executive Officer Neil Rodgers highlights the GTHA accommodates over 30 per cent of Canada's annual immigration. He emphasizes it therefore is essential the government adhere to its own policies and projections to avoid a persistent demand/supply imbalance that results in driving prices continuously upward.
Visit OHBA website for full report.